NO CRYSTAL BALL NEEDED
Creating an early-warning system for climate 'tipping points' is wrong on so many levels it is hard to know where to begin
Science funding is rarely a bad thing and when it's to boost our knowledge of the greatest threat to humanity, it has to be seen as a positive. So, the £81 million slated recently by the Advanced Research & Invention Agency, to improve our understanding of climate element tipping points, is most welcome. The manner in which the giveaway is framed, however, really isn't.
According to ARIA, the funding will support the creation of an early warning system (EWS) that will 'confidently predict when a system will tip' alongside pinning down the timing of tipping and the consequences. This is wrong on so many levels that it is hard to know where to begin. For a start, if such an EWS were to work, we would need to be certain that the element tipping points in question – in this case the focus will be primarily on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the system of Atlantic currents known as the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) – had not already been crossed. As the minimum global average temperature rise at which either might undergo irreversible change has been estimated at 1ºC or less, we cannot be sure this is the case.
It could also be argued that already there are early warning signs for all to see. In the case of the AMOC, the so-called 'cold blob' south of Greenland arising from the freshening of the ocean and elevated temperatures along the eastern seaboard of North America, caused by a backing-up of the AMOC as its strength fades. In relation to the GIS, the loss of six trillion tonnes of ice (the equivalent of 400 million Olympic pools of water) since the early1990s should be enough to drive urgent action without any further warning. Finally, even if a climate element of interest hasn't tipped, by the time enough data are in to determine if or when tipping might happen, there is a very good chance it will be too late to stop it.
And there's more. Having worked on the development of EWS to anticipate and help tackle volcanic crises, I know that on their own they are completely useless. So, we identify the timing of a tipping point and have better pinned down the consequences – what then? Early warning systems are only one element of an emergency management plan that has also to encompass mitigation (if feasible) and response. In the case of a volcano, for example, it can be a raising of alert levels, building barriers able to divert lava flows, and evacuation of those areas most at risk, followed – if need be – by a general evacuation.
The existence of a tipping point EWS gives the impression that no action is required until an alarm is sounded, which is short-sighted and very dangerous. As far as climate element tipping points are concerned, the most critical part of emergency management actually precedes any early warning, in the sense that the only really effective mitigation is to prevent tipping. This requires the slashing of global emissions by at least 50 percent within five years, and even this is no guarantee of keeping the GIS largely intact or the AMOC circulating in a near normal state. In addition, here in the UK, the government should be making plans now for how society and economy will handle the consequences of tipped climate elements, and for the inevitable mayhem that already locked-in climate breakdown is set to bring. This isn't happening.
The truth is that a climate early warning system has been ringing bells for decades, and every extreme weather event – every Los Angeles, every Valencia – ratchets up the noise by another few decibels. It seems, however, that despite the constant ringing we are just not listening. Emissions continue to climb, fossil fuel corporations plan for expansion, and governments across the world are actively turning away from green measures. Maybe the reality of actually crossing a key climate tipping point – AMOC shutdown perhaps – will prove to be the equivalent of a bucket of freezing water over our heads, finally wake us up to what is happening. By then, of course, it will be too late.
A version of this article appeared in New Scientist on March 22nd, 2025