SUPERSTORMS, 45C DAYS AND SLEEPING IN THE PARK

What summer in the UK could be like in 2050

A version of this article was published in the ‘i’ newspaper on July 15th, 2025

Hard on the heels of a bone-dry Spring, and a baking June, the third heatwave of the Summer is upon us, and it looks like it might be the longest yet. In 2025, heatwaves are still news, but in decades to come, as temperatures ramp up year-on-year, they will be nothing to write home about. Indeed, looking back from the vantage point of mid-century, this summer will be regarded with envy as cool and comfortable.

Temperatures over the weekend and into next week are likely to peak in the low to mid 30s, but this is pretty small beer compared to what's heading our way. The UK temperature record was smashed in July 2022, when the mercury touched 40.3°C at Coningsby in Lincolnshire, but a recent Met Office report warns that we need to be prepared for even more heat. According to the study, 40°C temperatures are already 20 times more likely than they were back in the Swinging 60s, and temperatures in excess of 45°C are now possible, if unlikely. These are grim figures, made worse by the prediction that heatwaves will last much longer. A single day of 40°C in 2022 was bad enough – imagine this lasting for a week or more.

Future summers will be all about the heat, and how we cope with it, but there will be other threats too. When heatwaves break down, it will be with increasing violence. Giant super-cell thunderstorms will roam the countryside, dumping colossal amounts or rain and golf-ball sized hail, leading to flash floods and damage to property and crops. Expect the odd tornado too. In between the storms, drought will be the order of the day, bringing severe water shortages and leaving farmland dessicated. As a hotter atmosphere sucks up more water, 'flash' droughts could build in a matter of days. Wildfires are already far more common in the UK than they used to be, and the tinder dry vegetation of future summers will ensure that they become a normal part of our lives during the hottest months, burning woods, moors and cropland and threatening infrastructure and communities.

There is no end in sight to global heating driven by human activities, which currently pump out more than 40 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide every year – equivalent to the weight of 800,000 Titanics – and the supercharged weather that results will just keep on coming. The truth is, we are transitioning to a prehistoric climate that our great grandparents simply wouldn't recognise. What will this mean for us in the decades to ahead, and what can we do to manage and adapt?

Health and well-being

There no sugaring the pill, extreme heat – like extreme cold – brings death. More than 3,000 people lost their lives as a consequence of the baking 2022 Summer, including more than 1,000 senior citizens during the record-breaking heatwave in the second half of July. The first heatwave of June this year, is thought to have led to around 600 deaths, and there will be many more over the course of this summer. Future, 40°C+ heatwaves will mean far higher death tolls amongst not only the elderly, but the very young and infirm, and A&E departments are likely to be overwhelmed at times. And it won't be just the heat causing problems. Poor air quality from wildfires will affect those with respiratory diseases, while a hike in burns and trauma injuries can be expected as more people are directly impacted by fires and flash floods. Tropical diseases are set to become more common, especially as winters become mild enough to allow the mosquitoes that carry them to survive and breed. Just a few months back, mosquitoes carrying West Nile Fever were found in Retford, Nottinghamshire. We will need to be careful about how we store our food too, a number of studies revealing a link between higher temperatures and food poisoning by salmonella and other nasties. Needless to say, incidences of skin cancer in the UK are already surging.

At home

If you struggle to sleep when the summer heat arrives, you probably won't be surprised to learn that the UK has the worst insulated homes in Europe. Insulation helps to keep a house warm in winter, but also keeps out the heat in summer. In the future, several days of 40°C temperatures will make a large chunk of UK homes, especially flats, simply unliveable, so that the only chance of sleeping will be to camp outside, in the street or local park. If you live in a basement flat, it might be a tad cooler, but listen out for flood warnings. Only last week, London mayor, Sadiq Khan warned that 50,000 residents living in basements were at risk of flash floods. As the summers get hotter, the housing market will be transformed as people decant from the cities into smaller towns or the countryside, seeking cooler conditions. There will also be a general movement northwards and uphill, where top temperatures will be that much lower. I moved out of London to the Peak District, after the 2003 heatwave, and now live 150 miles north of the capital and nearly 1,000ft uphill. Heatwave temperatures here are typically at least 6°C lower than in London. As water supplies become compromised by heat and drought, rationing will become more common, so be prepared – on occasion – for baths to be banned, and to have water supply limited to standpipes in the street. Finding the food you like to eat will become harder too, as crops in the UK and abroad suffer from extreme weather, causing shortages, massive price hikes, and big gaps on supermarket shelves. Oh, and if you don't want to miss an episode of Strictly during power outages, you might want to invest in solar panels and battery storage.

Work and school

As France roasted last week in the blistering heatwave that extends across Europe, an order went out to shut the schools. This is something that will become commonplace in the UK in years to come. Most school buildings have poor insulation, and many are made largely of glass, which – in future heatwaves – will resulting in baking temperatures inside that make studying impossible and threaten the health and well-being of students. It may be that the school year needs to be restructured, so that more teaching and exams take place outside the summer months. As France shut its schools last week, so Italy banned outside working during the hottest parts of the day across a number of regions, following several heat-related deaths. Inevitably, the hotter UK summers to come will mean that working in the open here will become dangerous during the hottest parts of the day, affecting the work schedules of farmers, builders, gardeners and others working outside. Indoor workplaces, and those who inhabit them, will also suffer from increasingly stifling heat, especially as there is currently no legally binding maximum temperature in the UK for workspaces. If you are one of the many who now work from home, this is unlikely to provide much respite from the heat.

Having fun

Because, historically, our weather has often been grim, we have always sought out the sun whenever the opportunity has arisen, but this is already beginning to change. This year, the number of Brits heading for the Med at the height of the summer is significantly down, while Scandinavia is becoming more popular – an early sign of a future that will see us avoiding rather than embracing the sun during June, July and August. As temperatures continue to surge, breezy hills and mountains and wooded countryside will prove ever more attractive than slowly broiling on a stretch of baking sand. Anywhere close to water will become a honeypot, and wild swimming will come into its own, as more and more venues open up to meet growing demand.

Power and transport

During the 4-day heatwave of July 2022, thousands of people across the country suffered power cuts due to the unprecedented (for the UK) temperatures, which caused power cables to sag and transformers to overheat, while hot power cables were unable to carry as much electricity. Expect plenty more of this as summers get ever hotter, causing business to shut down and making working from home – with no power or internet – that much more problematic. Demand also shoots up when it gets really hot, as people switch on fans or, if they have it, air conditioning, overloading the grid and making power failures that much more likely. In the years ahead, many more people are likely to install air conditioning, which will place even greater strain on energy supply. Transport chaos also ensued in 2022, as the heat buckled rails and damaged overhead cables and signalling equipment. This is only going to get worse. Roads won't fare much better either, as tarmacked surfaces melt into a gooey mess. And don't expect flying to be any easier – not that anyone should be flying at the height of a climate emergency. Extreme temperatures reduce the air density and make it harder for fully-loaded planes to get off the ground.

What can we do?

Government action is needed NOW in the form of an emergency insulation programme that ensures UK homes are high-summer sanctuaries rather than death traps. Maximum temperature legislation needs to be urgently introduced for schools and workplaces, ensuring the safety of those studying and working, and including those who are forced by their occupations to work outside. Public buildings need to be 'greened'; trees planted to provide shade and reflective paint used to cool them down. Public spaces need water features to provide respite from the heat – including sprinklers, misters and drinking fountains, and wild swimming needs to be facilitated in many more locations. Above all, government needs to slash UK greenhouse gas emissions and ensure that no more fossil fuels are dug up and burned. As individuals, there is plenty we can do to make future extreme heatwaves more bearable. Install external shutters, paint roofs and walls with white reflective paint, and plant trees – lots of them. On top of this, own the climate emergency that is the cause of all this, and do what's needed to cut your own greenhouse gas emissions. Your children and their children will thank you for it.