Never having been a sun lover I decided to retire to Northumberland - a beautiful county of cool summers and, at least on the coast, mild winters. Having read your book I’m now wishing I had chosen the Outer Hebrides. Thank you for the unvarnished truth.
Hi Bill, I'm looking forward to reading you book. I recently read there are four types of people regarding climate. (1) deniers, (2) green growth, (3) de-growth and (4) collapseologists. My guess is that a lot of people in (2) and (3) are moving to (4), but only a very small number are leaving (1), as it is based on world view, ideology and faith, not reality or fact.
You've written about capitalism being broken, which leads to the question of whether it can be changed through regulation and taxes, or we need to completely change how things (food, water, etc.) are made and distributed. Sadly, neither will ever happen, or at least not fast enough to save civilization, as we know it.
De-growth would certainly destroy civilization. Look what small recessions and Covid have done to the social safety net. Governments can't provide healthcare, roads, education, police, welfare, etc. without taxes. We may well find out whether de-growth works, as the stiff headwinds of climate change are just starting to slow economic growth.
Green growth is a nice dream, but business interests are too strong for it to ever happen. Polluting is very profitable, so until everyone stops doing it, no one will -- not at the international or national level. For example, when the US stops honoring decarbonization commitments, everyone stops. Otherwise, they would be at a serious disadvantage in the global market, and their politicians would be toppled. It's the level playing field issue that took up so much time in the Brexit negotiations. Further, the only way to decarbonize on the planetary level is for the developed world (US, EU, China) to spend vast amounts of money paying the developing world to install clean energy (more expensive, more complicated, requires more expertise, more risk), rather than coal and gas. That's never going to happen.
I worked at a decarbonization org, and know how complicated and difficult it is. As Dr. McGuire points out, despite fuzzy plans (aspirations, really) for countries to decarbonize, CO2 emission just keep going up. That's the real world (accurate scientific sensors), and everything after that is physics.
I'm looking forward to hearing Dr. McGuire's analysis for the next 30-odd years. How fast modern civilization will start to show real cracks -- rule of law, international relations, food supply, immigration and borders, etc.
I'm 62, our kids are 24 and 28. James Hanson wrote the "Storms of My Grandchildren" in 2010. He was wrong. This is happening now, and it will profoundly impact our children.
If I could ask a question before reading the book -- is there advice for individual? Vote, demonstrate, tie yourself to a building, etc., don't work. I'm an Extinction Rebellion member, but we don't have time for an extended campaign. The suffragette movement took 80 years. Gandhi took 30 years. The fight for civil rights in the US is still going after 150 years. The tobacco settlement took 44 years.
Sorry for the long post! And good luck with your book launch!
Good article. People need to hear the truth. Unfortunately, it's lost on those who need to absorb it most. I too, publish here and hope you can find 10 minutes to read this one.
bullsh-t!
Never having been a sun lover I decided to retire to Northumberland - a beautiful county of cool summers and, at least on the coast, mild winters. Having read your book I’m now wishing I had chosen the Outer Hebrides. Thank you for the unvarnished truth.
Hi Bill, I'm looking forward to reading you book. I recently read there are four types of people regarding climate. (1) deniers, (2) green growth, (3) de-growth and (4) collapseologists. My guess is that a lot of people in (2) and (3) are moving to (4), but only a very small number are leaving (1), as it is based on world view, ideology and faith, not reality or fact.
You've written about capitalism being broken, which leads to the question of whether it can be changed through regulation and taxes, or we need to completely change how things (food, water, etc.) are made and distributed. Sadly, neither will ever happen, or at least not fast enough to save civilization, as we know it.
De-growth would certainly destroy civilization. Look what small recessions and Covid have done to the social safety net. Governments can't provide healthcare, roads, education, police, welfare, etc. without taxes. We may well find out whether de-growth works, as the stiff headwinds of climate change are just starting to slow economic growth.
Green growth is a nice dream, but business interests are too strong for it to ever happen. Polluting is very profitable, so until everyone stops doing it, no one will -- not at the international or national level. For example, when the US stops honoring decarbonization commitments, everyone stops. Otherwise, they would be at a serious disadvantage in the global market, and their politicians would be toppled. It's the level playing field issue that took up so much time in the Brexit negotiations. Further, the only way to decarbonize on the planetary level is for the developed world (US, EU, China) to spend vast amounts of money paying the developing world to install clean energy (more expensive, more complicated, requires more expertise, more risk), rather than coal and gas. That's never going to happen.
I worked at a decarbonization org, and know how complicated and difficult it is. As Dr. McGuire points out, despite fuzzy plans (aspirations, really) for countries to decarbonize, CO2 emission just keep going up. That's the real world (accurate scientific sensors), and everything after that is physics.
I'm looking forward to hearing Dr. McGuire's analysis for the next 30-odd years. How fast modern civilization will start to show real cracks -- rule of law, international relations, food supply, immigration and borders, etc.
I'm 62, our kids are 24 and 28. James Hanson wrote the "Storms of My Grandchildren" in 2010. He was wrong. This is happening now, and it will profoundly impact our children.
If I could ask a question before reading the book -- is there advice for individual? Vote, demonstrate, tie yourself to a building, etc., don't work. I'm an Extinction Rebellion member, but we don't have time for an extended campaign. The suffragette movement took 80 years. Gandhi took 30 years. The fight for civil rights in the US is still going after 150 years. The tobacco settlement took 44 years.
Sorry for the long post! And good luck with your book launch!
Excellent piece. The food crisis could be even worse and have far greater impact: agriculture as we know it will start to break down. See https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/environmental-policy-economics-and-law/food-or-war
Good article. People need to hear the truth. Unfortunately, it's lost on those who need to absorb it most. I too, publish here and hope you can find 10 minutes to read this one.
https://geoffreydeihl.substack.com/p/circumstantial-evidence