I know. It's a hard one. Most people simply have no idea how bad climate breakdown is set to be, or how quickly things are going to get very bad indeed, and nor - frankly - do most politicians. Both groups need to be educated - now!
Thanks so much Bill for this piece. Your focus here is well set out and scary as hell. Please forgive me for adding to those concerns by drifting off-topic a moment - Imagine the implications for such vast populations on the move from coastal cities, when having to cope with the impact of frankly unliveable temperatures in many parts of the world. Where I live in Spain, our Spring virtually disappeared within days, rain seems to have simply given up (and fire-risks are now very frightening), and we have had temperatures well in excess of mid 30 degs C since May. Now we are about to see 40 Degs C, with little sign of a let up in sight. Our situation feels as if it is so radically changing, and so fast. The idea that we might have to cope with vast populations movements and still be able to feed them and house them seems simply untenable! The fact that so few still - after all that has been said and in so many places - fail to appreciate the scale of what is taking place, stands as a massive indictment of our global system of governance. It is surely time that our failing political leadership, and the fossil fuel industry (and other major emission causing industries), together with their enablers, face the music and are held to account. Sadly, it seems our catastrophic leadership is complicit - or distracted. And even if they were not, I have little sense that almost any of them have the spine to take on these interests and set out a just transition at a pace commensurate with what is going on.
On the positive, I do have a sense that we are finally moving politically in the right direction - but it is so slow, and just far too late. Perhaps if we had been politically where we are now, but 30 years back, we might have seen some prospect of gradual change being sufficient. But it seems to me we are now in the space where nothing less than a kind of global war footing has any chance of delivery - but our leadership is collectively AWOL. So I'd be very interested in thoughts about how we might change this situation at a pace and scale commensurate with what the science is telling us we need to do. Thanks once again Bill - please don't stop what you are doing! Very best, Simon
Many thanks for the note and the kind words Simon. You are right, things are moving, but moving far too slowly. We can no longer dodge dangerous climate breakdown, but we need to do everything we can to stop dangerous becoming cataclysmic.
We have a large community garden literally by the sea, well used to storms. On the west coast of Scotland the rising levels are less evident in the last 50 years, though weather changes are happening now.
Only 2%of US citizens see climate crisis as top of agenda, regardless of politics, and probably a bit higher in Europe.
COP26 was a huge boost to awareness here though the war and food crisis have taken over.
Without continuing education of public there is little chance of timely mitigation or just transition.
5 metres sea rise is at our bedroom window (and we are on the 2nd floor).
Indeed!! We have a very long way to go to get the message across. Even so, with a 45 percent fall in emissions required within 8 years to stay this side of a 1.5C rise, it is now practically impossible to dodge dangerous climate breakdown. We must, however, keep battling, to stop dangerous becoming cataclysmic.
Indeed. I totally agree Larch. I completely support activist groups and hope to be doing something soon with Just Stop Oil, linked to publication of my forthcoming book, Hothouse Earth: an Inhabitant's Guide. I will have a look at the A22 link now.
Thanks for your ongoing commentary on climate breakdown here and on twitter. I must admit to feeling sucker-punched by the rolling terrible news. Especially in the midst of the hottest week EVER. But what is almost more distressing is the widespread indifference around me. Do the ocean waves have to be lapping over our heads before a good chunk of the populace, let alone climate deniers, take notice? I sometimes think we deserve to go under. How can this collective folly ever be overcome?
100% respect to you Bill McGuire but I have to say I found this article unnecessarily alarmist. This is sounding like a global blanket worst case climate scenario and it will differ upon location, it's not a one shoe fits all here. So it would be great to know the methodology behind this possible panic, or slight need to adapt to climate resilience.
Uhhm....which bit do you have a problem with? Every single figure quoted is from peer-reviewed papers and/or current observations. My personal opinion - as is borne out by the facts included here - is that it is impossible to be alarmist about climate breakdown, so bad do prospects look. With a 45 percent cut in emissions required within 90 months, to stand any chance of staying this side of the 1.5C dangerous climate breakdown guardrail, emissions are on track to be up 14 percent by this date. It is already, then, practically impossible do dodge dangerous, all-pervasive climate breakdown, and there is no sign whatsoever of emissions being reined in. If people don't appreciate the seriousness of the situation, they simply won't act.
I don't dispute the facts, as we know it I'm just saying on a very local level it could be a slightly different picture, also with other climate threats in the mix as well. I'm fully committed through my work in this subject but telling someone on a practical level and the cost involved needs to be a more local understanding of what may/will happen.
I completely agree that impacts will vary somewhat from place to place and, of course, this will need to be taken account of in relation to adaptation, mitigation, avoidance. But, the situation is going to be grim everywere, with global impacts and a society that will likely be fraying at the edges, ensuring that no-one and nowhere gets it easy.
If the future sea level rise is as massive as the article suggests, nowhere at all will be exempt from the catastrophic consequences. The human (and animal) migration from coastal cities will force everywhere that isn't directly affected into accepting millions of climate refugees. Even the lower estimates put many, many cities at risk of extreme flooding or complete loss to the encroaching sea.
I know. It's a hard one. Most people simply have no idea how bad climate breakdown is set to be, or how quickly things are going to get very bad indeed, and nor - frankly - do most politicians. Both groups need to be educated - now!
Thanks so much Bill for this piece. Your focus here is well set out and scary as hell. Please forgive me for adding to those concerns by drifting off-topic a moment - Imagine the implications for such vast populations on the move from coastal cities, when having to cope with the impact of frankly unliveable temperatures in many parts of the world. Where I live in Spain, our Spring virtually disappeared within days, rain seems to have simply given up (and fire-risks are now very frightening), and we have had temperatures well in excess of mid 30 degs C since May. Now we are about to see 40 Degs C, with little sign of a let up in sight. Our situation feels as if it is so radically changing, and so fast. The idea that we might have to cope with vast populations movements and still be able to feed them and house them seems simply untenable! The fact that so few still - after all that has been said and in so many places - fail to appreciate the scale of what is taking place, stands as a massive indictment of our global system of governance. It is surely time that our failing political leadership, and the fossil fuel industry (and other major emission causing industries), together with their enablers, face the music and are held to account. Sadly, it seems our catastrophic leadership is complicit - or distracted. And even if they were not, I have little sense that almost any of them have the spine to take on these interests and set out a just transition at a pace commensurate with what is going on.
On the positive, I do have a sense that we are finally moving politically in the right direction - but it is so slow, and just far too late. Perhaps if we had been politically where we are now, but 30 years back, we might have seen some prospect of gradual change being sufficient. But it seems to me we are now in the space where nothing less than a kind of global war footing has any chance of delivery - but our leadership is collectively AWOL. So I'd be very interested in thoughts about how we might change this situation at a pace and scale commensurate with what the science is telling us we need to do. Thanks once again Bill - please don't stop what you are doing! Very best, Simon
Many thanks for the note and the kind words Simon. You are right, things are moving, but moving far too slowly. We can no longer dodge dangerous climate breakdown, but we need to do everything we can to stop dangerous becoming cataclysmic.
We have a large community garden literally by the sea, well used to storms. On the west coast of Scotland the rising levels are less evident in the last 50 years, though weather changes are happening now.
Only 2%of US citizens see climate crisis as top of agenda, regardless of politics, and probably a bit higher in Europe.
COP26 was a huge boost to awareness here though the war and food crisis have taken over.
Without continuing education of public there is little chance of timely mitigation or just transition.
5 metres sea rise is at our bedroom window (and we are on the 2nd floor).
Indeed!! We have a very long way to go to get the message across. Even so, with a 45 percent fall in emissions required within 8 years to stay this side of a 1.5C rise, it is now practically impossible to dodge dangerous climate breakdown. We must, however, keep battling, to stop dangerous becoming cataclysmic.
Thanks so much for your work Bill and the comments from other readers. Given the urgency and seriousness of the situation we cannot simply implore people to take action, but need, together, to create pathways to action. Do you agree? If so please work with organisations like Fire proof Australia https://fireproof.news/ and Just Stop Oil (UK). Wherever we live we can work together to help build this global movement for change. For Example, through the A22 network :- https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/04/05/2417047/0/en/A22-Network-Holds-Global-Press-Conference-on-Climate-Change-Civil-Resistance-Campaign-April-12.html
Indeed. I totally agree Larch. I completely support activist groups and hope to be doing something soon with Just Stop Oil, linked to publication of my forthcoming book, Hothouse Earth: an Inhabitant's Guide. I will have a look at the A22 link now.
Reading this post verbatim now for a clubhouse audience of a thousand. Thanks Bill.
That's super Jiwan. I hope people take notice.
Hi Bill —
Thanks for your ongoing commentary on climate breakdown here and on twitter. I must admit to feeling sucker-punched by the rolling terrible news. Especially in the midst of the hottest week EVER. But what is almost more distressing is the widespread indifference around me. Do the ocean waves have to be lapping over our heads before a good chunk of the populace, let alone climate deniers, take notice? I sometimes think we deserve to go under. How can this collective folly ever be overcome?
100% respect to you Bill McGuire but I have to say I found this article unnecessarily alarmist. This is sounding like a global blanket worst case climate scenario and it will differ upon location, it's not a one shoe fits all here. So it would be great to know the methodology behind this possible panic, or slight need to adapt to climate resilience.
Uhhm....which bit do you have a problem with? Every single figure quoted is from peer-reviewed papers and/or current observations. My personal opinion - as is borne out by the facts included here - is that it is impossible to be alarmist about climate breakdown, so bad do prospects look. With a 45 percent cut in emissions required within 90 months, to stand any chance of staying this side of the 1.5C dangerous climate breakdown guardrail, emissions are on track to be up 14 percent by this date. It is already, then, practically impossible do dodge dangerous, all-pervasive climate breakdown, and there is no sign whatsoever of emissions being reined in. If people don't appreciate the seriousness of the situation, they simply won't act.
I don't dispute the facts, as we know it I'm just saying on a very local level it could be a slightly different picture, also with other climate threats in the mix as well. I'm fully committed through my work in this subject but telling someone on a practical level and the cost involved needs to be a more local understanding of what may/will happen.
I completely agree that impacts will vary somewhat from place to place and, of course, this will need to be taken account of in relation to adaptation, mitigation, avoidance. But, the situation is going to be grim everywere, with global impacts and a society that will likely be fraying at the edges, ensuring that no-one and nowhere gets it easy.
If the future sea level rise is as massive as the article suggests, nowhere at all will be exempt from the catastrophic consequences. The human (and animal) migration from coastal cities will force everywhere that isn't directly affected into accepting millions of climate refugees. Even the lower estimates put many, many cities at risk of extreme flooding or complete loss to the encroaching sea.