Thanks for the comment. My piece was focused on physical tipping points, which we can pin dow far better than social tipping points. In addition, any positive social and economic changes are extremely unlikely to stop us crossing a number of critical climate tipping points. The global average temperature rise over the last 365 days averages 1.55C, and the average for the last 180 days is around 1.7C.. Still, this does not stop us fighting to try and stop every tonne of emitted carbon. I suspect, as a number of reports have forecast that any positive social changes will be overwhelmed in the next few decades by economic and societal dysfunction and ultimate breakdown, possibly as soon as 2040. It's a grim picture. B.
Great to hear that you are teaching this stuff. Everyone with the knowledge should be shouting it from the rooftops. Tipping points are, as you know, based upon what has happened in the past, so building a better picture of their timing, impacts etc going forward is incredibly difficult, particularly as the global temperature is now almost certainly rising faster than at any time in Earth history. To be honest, I don't know if AI (or machine learning as I - less emotively - prefer!) is being brought in,, but I am not sure if it can add to our knowledge, given the relative paucity of data. All best, Bill.
Bill, Having your comedic exploits in mind I fear that my sarcasm was too cryptic. I meant that to give what appears to be innumerate metaphor parity with science is disreputable.
PS. If 2024 so far is 0.4C warmer than the same period last year it's not unreasonable to expect the annual mean for 2024 to be +1.9C. In fact, since the effect of el nino only began to be felt in mid-2023, I'll give you evens that 2024 exceeds 2C.
Bill, I wonder why you don’t mention the many positive tipping points (in the social and policy domain) as set out in your first reference, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023 https://global-tipping-points.org/ You will know that this 452-page report was funded by the Bezos Earth Fund. In the foreword its president, Dr Andrew Steer, gives the example of electric vehicles which, as they pass a positive tipping point towards becoming a dominant form of transport, reduce the cost of battery technology, reinforce the positive tipping point to renewable power, and thence to green ammonia for [nitrogenous] fertilizers and ship propulsion. The potential progress, Dr Steer says, ‘shocks even the optimists’. This cascade of beneficience is repeated elsewhere in the report, which has over 200 authors led by Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter. Hope is expressed that processes such as innovation, economies of scale and social contagion will accelerate to match the imminence of the negative tipping points. However, you may wonder why the social tipping points that spring easiest to mind, war and economic collapse, aren’t mentioned. Nor is the role of growth, perhaps because the authors believe it is yet to culminate in the colonization of space. As Mr Bezos was quoted as saying in 2021: ‘We can have a trillion humans in the solar system, which means we’d have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins’. You may also regard the so-called positive tipping points of the report as innumerate and no more than metaphorical, in which case their apparent parity with reputable science risks another negative tipping point – the collapse of trust in scholarship.
I teach this stuff to Architectural Technology students, who try to detail buildings, so looking at the weather is very important, but so is what the weather is going to do not this year or the next, but way into the future. The tipping point is so part of this, you cover most of the points I use. in my Lectures. So where next, the models are one area I am looking at I want to know what goes into the models, how many models there are, do they collaborate, is there an AI helping, so many questions. Prof Scays
Hi Philip,
Thanks for the comment. My piece was focused on physical tipping points, which we can pin dow far better than social tipping points. In addition, any positive social and economic changes are extremely unlikely to stop us crossing a number of critical climate tipping points. The global average temperature rise over the last 365 days averages 1.55C, and the average for the last 180 days is around 1.7C.. Still, this does not stop us fighting to try and stop every tonne of emitted carbon. I suspect, as a number of reports have forecast that any positive social changes will be overwhelmed in the next few decades by economic and societal dysfunction and ultimate breakdown, possibly as soon as 2040. It's a grim picture. B.
Great to hear that you are teaching this stuff. Everyone with the knowledge should be shouting it from the rooftops. Tipping points are, as you know, based upon what has happened in the past, so building a better picture of their timing, impacts etc going forward is incredibly difficult, particularly as the global temperature is now almost certainly rising faster than at any time in Earth history. To be honest, I don't know if AI (or machine learning as I - less emotively - prefer!) is being brought in,, but I am not sure if it can add to our knowledge, given the relative paucity of data. All best, Bill.
Bill, Having your comedic exploits in mind I fear that my sarcasm was too cryptic. I meant that to give what appears to be innumerate metaphor parity with science is disreputable.
PS. If 2024 so far is 0.4C warmer than the same period last year it's not unreasonable to expect the annual mean for 2024 to be +1.9C. In fact, since the effect of el nino only began to be felt in mid-2023, I'll give you evens that 2024 exceeds 2C.
Bill, I wonder why you don’t mention the many positive tipping points (in the social and policy domain) as set out in your first reference, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023 https://global-tipping-points.org/ You will know that this 452-page report was funded by the Bezos Earth Fund. In the foreword its president, Dr Andrew Steer, gives the example of electric vehicles which, as they pass a positive tipping point towards becoming a dominant form of transport, reduce the cost of battery technology, reinforce the positive tipping point to renewable power, and thence to green ammonia for [nitrogenous] fertilizers and ship propulsion. The potential progress, Dr Steer says, ‘shocks even the optimists’. This cascade of beneficience is repeated elsewhere in the report, which has over 200 authors led by Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter. Hope is expressed that processes such as innovation, economies of scale and social contagion will accelerate to match the imminence of the negative tipping points. However, you may wonder why the social tipping points that spring easiest to mind, war and economic collapse, aren’t mentioned. Nor is the role of growth, perhaps because the authors believe it is yet to culminate in the colonization of space. As Mr Bezos was quoted as saying in 2021: ‘We can have a trillion humans in the solar system, which means we’d have a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins’. You may also regard the so-called positive tipping points of the report as innumerate and no more than metaphorical, in which case their apparent parity with reputable science risks another negative tipping point – the collapse of trust in scholarship.
I teach this stuff to Architectural Technology students, who try to detail buildings, so looking at the weather is very important, but so is what the weather is going to do not this year or the next, but way into the future. The tipping point is so part of this, you cover most of the points I use. in my Lectures. So where next, the models are one area I am looking at I want to know what goes into the models, how many models there are, do they collaborate, is there an AI helping, so many questions. Prof Scays